- Urhwebo lwaseTshayina kunye neLatin America kunye neCaribbean lukhule ngokuphindwe ngama-26 phakathi kwe-2000 kunye ne-2020. Urhwebo lwe-LAC-China kulindeleke ukuba lube ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabini ngo-2035, ukuya ngaphezu kwe-700 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
- I-US kunye nezinye iimarike zemveli zivame ukuphulukana nenxaxheba kwi-LAC epheleleyo yokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwempahla kwiminyaka eli-15 ezayo.Kusenokuba nzima ukuba i-LAC iphuhlise ngakumbi ikhonkco lexabiso layo kwaye ixhamle kwimarike yengingqi.
- Isicwangciso semeko kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo emitsha inokunceda abachaphazelekayo balungiselele iimeko eziguqukayo.
Ukunyuka kweTshayina njengendlu yamandla yorhwebo kube nefuthe elinzulu kurhwebo lwehlabathi kule minyaka ingama-20 idlulileyo, kunye namacandelo aphambili ezoqoqosho eLatin America kunye neCaribbean (LAC) phakathi kwabona baxhamli bakhulu.Phakathi kuka-2000 kunye no-2020, urhwebo lwase-China-LAC lukhule ngokuphindwe ngama-26 ukusuka kwi-12 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukuya kwi-315 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
Ngeminyaka yoo-2000, imfuno yamaTshayina iqhube umjikelo omkhulu wemveliso eLatin America, inceda ekudambiseni ukuchitheka kommandla wentlekele yezemali yehlabathi ka-2008.Kwiminyaka elishumi emva koko, urhwebo ne-China lwahlala luqinile ngaphandle kobhubhane, lubonelela ngomthombo obalulekileyo wokukhula kwangaphandle kwi-LAC ehlaselwe ngubhubhani, ethatha i-30% yokusweleka kwe-COVID yehlabathi kwaye yafumana isithintelo se-GDP ye-7.4% ngo-2020. ubudlelwane borhwebo olomeleleyo ngokwembali kunye ne-United States kunye neYurophu, ukukhula koqoqosho lwase-China kuneempembelelo kwimpumelelo kunye ne-geopolitics kwi-LAC nangaphaya.
Le trajectory ichukumisayo yorhwebo yaseChina-LAC kule minyaka ingama-20 idlulileyo ikwaphakamisa imibuzo ebalulekileyo kule minyaka ingamashumi amabini izayo: Yintoni esinokuyilindela kobu budlelwane borhwebo?Zeziphi iindlela ezivelayo ezinokuchaphazela oku kuhamba kwezorhwebo kwaye zinokudlala njani kwingingqi nakwihlabathi jikelele?Ukwakha phezu kwethuingxelo yakutshanje yeemeko zorhwebo, Nazi iimbono ezintathu eziphambili zabachaphazelekayo be-LAC.Ezi zinto zifunyanisiweyo zikwafanelekile kwi-China kunye namanye amaqabane aphambili ezorhwebo e-LAC, kubandakanywa ne-United States.
Yintoni esilindele ukuyibona?
Kwi-trajectory yangoku, urhwebo lwe-LAC-China kulindeleke ukuba ludlule i-700 yeebhiliyoni zeedola nge-2035, ngaphezu kwe-2020. I-China iya kusondela-kwaye ingadlula-i-US njengeqabane eliphezulu lokurhweba le-LAC.Ngo-2000, ukuthatha inxaxheba kwamaTshayina kwaba ngaphantsi kwe-2% yorhwebo lulonke lwe-LAC.Ngo-2035, inokufikelela kwi-25%.
Amanani ahlanganisiweyo, nangona kunjalo, afihla iiyantlukwano ezinkulu phakathi kwemimandla eyahlukeneyo.E-Mexico, ngokwesiko exhomekeke kurhwebo ne-US, imeko yethu esisiseko iqikelela ukuba ukuthatha inxaxheba kwe-China kunokufikelela malunga ne-15% yorhwebo lwelizwe lwaseMexico.Kwelinye icala, iBrazil, iChile, kunye nePeru zinokuba ngaphezulu kwe-40% yokuthengisa ngaphandle okuya eTshayina.
Lilonke, ubudlelwane obunempilo kunye namahlakani ayo amabini amakhulu buya kuba luncedo lwe-LAC.Nangona i-United States inokubona ukunciphisa inxaxheba kwi-LAC yorhwebo malunga ne-China, ubudlelwane be-hemispheric-ingakumbi abo babandakanya ukuhlanganiswa okunzulu kwe-supply-chain-yiyona nto ibalulekileyo yokuvelisa ukuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe, utyalo-mali kunye nokukhula kwexabiso elongezelelweyo kummandla.
I-China yayiza kufumana njani kwakhona umhlaba kurhwebo lwe-LAC?
Nangona urhwebo lubopheleleke ukuba lukhule kumacala omabini, uguquko luya kwenzeka ngakumbi luvela kwimpahla ye-LAC evela e-China- endaweni yokuthunyelwa kwe-LAC e-China.
Kwicala lokungenisa elizweni le-LAC, sibona kwangaphambili ukuba i-China iya isiba nokhuphiswano ngakumbi kwiimveliso ezithunyelwa ngaphandle, ngenxa yokwamkelwa kobuchwepheshe be-Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) kuquka i-5G kunye nobukrelekrele bokwenziwa.Lilonke, ingeniso yemveliso evela kubuchule obutsha kunye neminye imithombo iya kuba ngaphaya kweziphumo zabasebenzi abacuthekayo, ukugcina ukukhuphisana kokuthumela ngaphandle kweTshayina.
Kwicala lokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-LAC, inguqu ebalulekileyo yecandelo inokuqhutywa.Imveliso yezolimo ye-LAC ethunyelwa eTshayina iakunakwenzeka ukuba uqhubekengesantya se bonanza sangoku.Ngokuqinisekileyo, lo mmandla uya kuhlala unokhuphiswano kwezolimo.Kodwa iimarike ngaphandle kweTshayina, ezinje ngeAfrika, ziya kuba negalelo kwimivuzo ephezulu yokuthumela ngaphandle.Oku kuqaqambisa ukubaluleka kwamazwe e-LAC ekuphononongeni iimakethi zeendawo ezintsha zokusingwa, kunye nokuguqula izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle eChina ngokwayo.
Kwibhalansi, ukukhula kwempahla ephuma kumazwe angaphandle kusenokwenzeka ukuba kudlule ukukhula korhwebo oluthunyelwa ngaphandle, okubangela intsilelo ephezulu yorhwebo ye-LAC i-vis-à-vis China, nangona kukho umahluko omkhulu wengingqi.Ngelixa inani elincinane kakhulu lamazwe e-LAC ekulindeleke ukuba ligcine intshiyekela yawo ne-China, umfanekiso obanzi ubonisa ukushota okukhulu korhwebo kulo mmandla.Ukongeza, imigaqo-nkqubo ehambelanayo nengarhwebiyo iya kubaluleka ekumiseleni ubungakanani kunye neziphumo zesibini zolu kusilela kwezorhwebo kwilizwe ngalinye, ukusuka kwiimarike zabasebenzi ukuya kumgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle.
Yintoni onokuyilindela kurhwebo lwe-intra-LAC ngo-2035?
Njengoko ubhubhani uphazamise amakhonkco obonelelo lwehlabathi, iifowuni ezivela kwi-LAC zokubuyisela umhlaba okanye ukusondela kunye nokudityaniswa okukhulu kwengingqi ziphinde zavela.Nangona kunjalo, sicinga ukuqhubeka kwezinto ezikhoyo, ikamva alibonakali lithembisa kurhwebo lwe-intra-LAC.Ngelixa kwezinye iindawo zehlabathi, ngakumbi i-Asiya, urhwebo lwangaphakathi luye lwanda ngokukhawuleza kunorhwebo lwehlabathi kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ukuguquka okufanayo akuzange kubonwe kwi-LAC.
Ukungabikho kwempembelelo entsha enkulu yokumanyaniswa kwengingqi, ukucuthwa okubonakalayo kweendleko zorhwebo ze-intra-LAC okanye iinzuzo ezinkulu zemveliso, i-LAC isenokuhlala ingakwazi ukuphuhlisa ngakumbi ikhonkco lexabiso kunye nenzuzo kwimarike yengingqi.Ngapha koko, uqikelelo lwethu lubonisa ukuba kule minyaka ili-15 izayo, urhwebo lwe-intra-LAC lunokuba ngaphantsi kwe-15% yorhwebo lulonke lommandla, ukuhla kwincopho ye-20% ngaphambi kuka-2010.
Ukujonga emva kwikamva: Yintoni omawuyenze namhlanje?
Kule minyaka ingamashumi amabini izayo, i-China iya kuba sisimiselo esibaluleke ngakumbi kwinkangeleko yezoqoqosho ye-LAC.Urhwebo lwe-LAC luthambekele ekujikeni ngakumbi ngakumbi eChina-echaphazela amanye amaqabane orhwebo kunye norhwebo lwangaphakathi lwengingqi ngokwalo.Sicebisa:
UCwangciso lwemeko
Ukwakhiwa kweemeko akukho malunga nokuqikelela ikamva, kodwa kunceda abachaphazelekayo ukuba balungiselele okunokwenzeka okwahlukileyo.Ukucwangciswa kweemeko eziguqukayo kungxamisekile ngakumbi xa kunokwenzeka ukuba kubekho isiphithiphithi ngaphambili: Umzekelo, amazwe e-LAC kunye neenkampani ezinokuchatshazelwa lutshintsho olunokubakho ekuqulunqweni kokuthunyelwa kwe-LAC eChina.Umceli mngeni wokwenza amacandelo okuthumela impahla ngaphandle akhuphisane ngakumbi kwimarike yaseTshayina uye wacaca ngakumbi kwi-LAC.Kukwanjalo malunga nesidingo sokuphuhlisa iimarike ezintsha, ezizezinye zokuthengisa ngaphandle kwe-LAC, ezifana nezolimo kunye, ngokwandayo, izixhobo.
Imveliso kunye noKhuphiswano
Abathathi-nxaxheba be-LAC-kunye nabenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo kunye namashishini ngokukodwa-kufuneka baqonde ngokucacileyo malunga neempembelelo zorhwebo zemveliso ephantsi echaphazela icandelo lemveliso.Ngaphandle kokujongana nemiba ejongela phantsi ukhuphiswano lweshishini kummandla, ukuthunyelwa kwe-LAC e-US, kummandla ngokwawo kunye nezinye iimarike zemveli ziya kuqhubeka zibandezeleka.Kwangaxeshanye, abachaphazelekayo e-US baya kwenza kakuhle ukuthatha amanyathelo okuvuselela urhwebo lwe-hemispherical, ukuba ukugcina ukuthatha inxaxheba kwe-US kurhwebo lwe-LAC kuthathwa njengenjongo ekufanele ilandelwe.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jul-10-2021